![]() Though a half-degree above average is hardly a delightfully early eruption of spring by most standards, it qualifies by our metric. In an effort to be generous in our interpretation (and following the lead of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) previous groundhog analysis), our analysis has an early spring bias - only one month needs to have had an above-average temperature for a year to count as an early spring, even if it’s only a slight increase in temperature. ![]() “There is no sharp guideline on what the temperature will be or the turning point of a particular day,” Dunkel said. What constitutes an early spring? Should a month with an average temperature 2 degrees higher than the historical average count as one? What about 5 degrees? What if all the snow melts and it’s warm and sunny for a week in February, but then March comes in like a lion? Dunkel said the club does not have a specific date or even definition of an early spring. In fairness to Phil and his supposedly sterling record, evaluating these predictions is tricky. “Because Phil is always right,” Dunkel said, recalling the incident.īut the numbers - THE NUMBERS - tell a different story. The club’s president at the time realized he must have misinterpreted Phil’s prediction. In a recent interview, he said that one year, after Phil predicted an early spring, the region was dumped on with a lot of snow. Tom Dunkel is the club’s vice president and a member of its “inner circle” - a group of 14 local dignitaries (including Phil) that is charged with keeping the Groundhog Day tradition alive. Phil speaks his prediction to the president of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club in “Groundhogese,” a language only the president can understand, and the president then translates for the masses.īut this is occasionally where chaos can ensue. If he doesn’t see his shadow, that portends an early spring (a prediction that feels more worrisome than hopeful in light of climate change). According to legend, if he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. Phil’s predictions, like those of most groundhog prognosticators, depend on whether or not he sees his shadow on the morning of Feb. ![]() But when comparing his predictions to historical weather data, he’s only right about a third of the time. Phil, arguably the world’s most well-known rodent weather predictor, has been forecasting when spring will arrive annually on Groundhog Day since 1887. A groundbreaking analysis 1 has revealed the Pennsylvania-based groundhog who makes annual predictions about the arrival of spring is not nearly as reliable a prognosticator as those close to him claim. After dozens of grueling hours of investigation, FiveThirtyEight can confirm that Punxsutawney Phil is a charlatan.
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